The first half of 2025 has been a rollercoaster, marked by further increases in geopolitical risk and trade tensions. In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict, June 2025 saw a military escalation between Iran and Israel, including potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil prices to spike to one-year highs. On the other hand, tariff shocks, which come and go, caused equity sell-offs and increased volatility. The US dollar saw major losses while the Euro surged to 3-year highs, and US markets have underperformed compared with other markets globally. Contrary to historical norms, U.S. Treasuries did not act as a haven in times of stress: yields rose instead of falling, spotlighting shifting perceptions and behaviour.
In H1 2025 we saw few changes in monetary policy across the world as central banks remained cautious. A weaker dollar, which increased commodity prices, and the overall uncertainty about global activity, drove interest in commodity futures and options. A number of jurisdictions took steps to improve the environment for public listings by introducing more flexibility in the related local regulations. Also, in line with the WFE’s policy position, jurisdictions moved strongly to encourage greater reliance on and participation in capital market investment.
Except otherwise stated, the analysis references a five-year period (from July 2020 to June 2025).
